Arsene Wenger “everyone thinks they have the prettiest wife at home”. Emerging market property and confirmation bias.
I was in Manila this week. I met a very friendly neighbor who was having WIFI issues. He knocked on my door. A clearly international man, who is married to an American in a same-sex relationship, he has some interesting views on a range of subjects.
After some brief small talk, he told me he is a Filipino real estate agent. Most of his clients are overseas Filipino workers, who want to invest in the local market.
This is because, in his words, ‘Philippines property never goes down!’ He was saying the same line that I have heard in the UK, China and elsewhere.
I do not take an active interest in the Filipino property market, but I knew his comments couldn’t be true, as no real estate market has never gone down, or consistently beaten the US S&P over a 50 year period.
A few hours later, I looked at the statistics. In the last ten years the property consultancy Colliers has come up with the following statistics:
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